Oxford and Yale survey asks AI experts to time future milestones
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A team from the University of Oxford and Yale University surveyed 352 AI researchers, drawn from 1,634 authors who published at NIPS and ICML in 2015, asking them to estimate when machines will surpass humans at specific tasks. Respondents put language translation around 2024, writing a high-school essay by 2026, truck driving by 2027, retail work by 2031, a bestselling book by 2049 and surgery by 2053. They gave a 50% chance that AI would outperform humans on all tasks within 45 years. Most respondents expected AI to benefit humanity, assigning only a 5% chance to an "extremely bad" outcome. The figures are the surveyed experts' estimates, not observed results.
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- Hacker News · AISurvey of AI experts predicts timelines for future AI milestones
A survey of 352 AI researchers, drawn from 1,634 authors who published at NIPS and ICML in 2015, estimated when machines will surpass humans at specific tasks. Respondents put language translation around 2024, writing a high-school essay by 2026, truck driving by 2027, retail work by 2031, a bestselling book by 2049 and surgery by 2053, with a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans on all tasks within 45 years. Most expected AI to benefit humanity, giving only a 5% chance of an "extremely bad" outcome.
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