Survey of AI experts predicts timelines for future AI milestones

A survey of 352 AI researchers, drawn from 1,634 authors who published at NIPS and ICML in 2015, estimated when machines will surpass humans at specific tasks. Respondents put language translation around 2024, writing a high-school essay by 2026, truck driving by 2027, retail work by 2031, a bestselling book by 2049 and surgery by 2053, with a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans on all tasks within 45 years. Most expected AI to benefit humanity, giving only a 5% chance of an "extremely bad" outcome.