Big Pharma's Scale Now Rivals Big Software
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Eli Lilly is now worth more than $1 trillion, and roughly 300 drugs worldwide are each projected to exceed $1 billion in annual peak sales — a scale comparable to about 190 public software companies in the same revenue range, according to a16z. The comparison rests on drug economics that remain far harsher than software's: developing a drug costs close to $2 billion in present value and takes 13 years on average, with fewer than 5% of candidates reaching FDA approval. AI is expected to cut that cost by raising the probability of success and shortening time to approval, applied across target identification, molecule design, trial recruitment and FDA submissions. Those are projections of expected effect, not demonstrated results.
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- a16z NewsBig Pharma Can Rival Big Software
Eli Lilly is now worth more than a trillion dollars, and roughly 300 drugs worldwide are projected to exceed $1B in annual peak sales each, a scale comparable to about 190 public software companies in the same revenue range. Developing a drug still costs close to $2B in present value and takes 13 years on average, with fewer than 5% of candidates reaching FDA approval. AI is expected to cut that cost by raising the probability of success and shortening time to approval across target identification, molecule design, trial recruitment and FDA submissions.
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