Economist: AI Pessimism and Optimism Are Observationally Equivalent
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A libertarian economist argues that AI pessimists and AI optimists have equally strong predictive track records, so their competing forecasts remain observationally equivalent given existing data. He contends the real dispute is over which reference class to apply, and that common sense favors dismissing imminent-extinction predictions as historically unfalsified. The argument does not claim either side has been vindicated by evidence; it holds that current data cannot distinguish between them. The disagreement, in his account, turns on the choice of reference class rather than on any decisive empirical test.
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- Hacker News · AIAI Pessimism Is Observationally Equivalent to AI Optimism, Argues Economist
A libertarian economist argues that AI pessimists and AI optimists have equally strong predictive track records, so their competing forecasts remain observationally equivalent given existing data. He contends the real dispute is over which reference class to apply, and that common sense favors dismissing imminent-extinction predictions as historically unfalsified.
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