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#Policy / regulation
September 28Monday
  1. AI as Normal Technology31

    AI existential risk probabilities are still too unreliable to inform policy

    Two researchers argue that current estimates of AI existential risk remain too unreliable to inform public policy, republishing their earlier deconstruction of p(doom) as such rhetoric drives unprecedented policy attention. They contend that unlike most quantitative forecasts, these probabilities rest on no validated model or method, and that inductive, deductive and subjective approaches all fail for AI x-risk.

September 21Monday
  1. Import AI22

    Import AI 473: RAND's US superintelligence strategy, human brain tissue in mice, and machine hermeneutics

    RAND published a paper arguing the US should adopt a "Freedom of Action" strategy to preserve options on the uncertain path to superintelligence, built on four pillars including a human-AI ecosystem and an AI-security architecture. The paper lays out seven archetypal strategies across coexistence, denial, and acceleration, and identifies five key uncertainties such as danger proximity and coexistence feasibility. Separately, researchers grew chunks of human-like brain tissue inside baby mice with depleted mouse brains.